Validation of an Atrial Fibrillation Risk Algorithm in Whites and African Americans

Abstract

The prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been increasing over the last several decades.^1,2 The improved assessment of risk for incident AF was formulated as a major goal of a recently convened National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute workshop.³ A risk algorithm based on readily available clinical variables for 10-year incidence of AF in Framingham Heart Study (FHS) participants has been pub lished (http://www.framinghamheartstudy.org/risk/index.html).⁴Transportability to independent cohorts and other racial groups with different incidence rates and distributions of risk factors has to be shown before general recommendations for the use of the risk algorithm can be given. In particular, in African Americans, a paradoxically low prevalence of AF has consistently been reported despite a high risk factor burden.^5,6 Thus, it is important to understand how the classic risk factors for AF combined in a risk prediction algorithm are associated with risk in African Americans.