Uncertainties of cosmic ray spectra and detectability of antiproton mSUGRA contributions with PAMELA

Abstract

We studied the variation of $e^+$ and $\bar p$ top of the atmosphere spectra due to the parameters uncertainties of the Milky Way geometry, propagation models and cross sections. We used the B/C data and Galprop code for the propagation analysis. We also derived the uncertainty bands for subFe/Fe ratio, H and He. Finally, we considered a neutralino induced component in the antiproton flux in the mSUGRA framework. PAMELA expectations for positrons and antiprotons are calculated. We studied in details the possibility of disentanglement of an eventual signal component in the antiproton spectra in a clumpy halo scenario: minimal values of clumpiness factors necessary to disentangle the signal from the background without violating the quality of the antiproton data fit are found. There are also given examples of total spectra in comparison with existing experimental data and an example of PAMELA prediction for the total spectra. The main result of this work is that for the diffusion and convection background model PAMELA will be able to disentangle an eventual supersymmetric signal even for small clumpiness factors.