Strategic analysis of the James Bay hydro-electric dispute in Canada

Abstract

A strategic analysis of the James Bay conflict was carried out by using the graph model for conflict resolution. In 1971, Hydro-Québec, which is the third-largest electrical generating company of North America, began its large-scale hydroelectric projects in the James Bay area. Since the projects would significantly affect the living conditions of the native people and the environment around that region, worldwide debates were stimulated. A conflict model was developed in terms of the decision makers, their options, and their preferences for the situation existing as of January 2002, just prior to the signing of the final agreement. Subsequently, a stability analysis based on the calibrated model indicates that a possible resolution is that Hydro-Québec reduces the number of proposed power stations to appease the native people, who in turn would not initiate lawsuits. Sensitivity and hypergame analyses were also carried out to demonstrate the effects of preferences of decision makers on the final resolution. In practice, the modelling and analysis were implemented using the decision support system, GMCR II^®. Key words: Hydroelectric, conflict resolution, decision support system, graph model, stability analysis, sensitivity analysis, hypergame analysis.