Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse

Abstract

Predicting Catastrophic Collapse: It is very difficult to predict the behavior of complex systems near tipping points, where a small change in conditions can lead to a large shift in the state of the system. Theory predicts that some generic statistical indicators can signal the approach of such tipping points, such as slower recoveries from perturbations of the system—a phenomenon called critical slowing down. Working with laboratory yeast populations, Dai et al. (p. 1175 ) provide an experimental measure for critical slowing down before catastrophic population collapse. This type of approach should help when trying to predict catastrophic thresholds in other complex systems, ranging from ecosystem transition to climate change, and even to crashes of financial markets.