Predicting Private Companies Failure in the Sudan
- 22 June 2001
- journal article
- Published by Taylor & Francis Ltd in Journal of African Business
- Vol. 2 (2), 23-43
- https://doi.org/10.1300/j156v02n02_03
Abstract
This paper applies failure prediction techniques to a sample of private companies in the Sudan, an African Less Developed Country (LDC). As a first step, the study uses profile analysis and dichotomous classification techniques to test the ability of univariate models in predicting failure in a simple and less complex economic environment. Next, the study replicates Altman Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) to the sample but achieved low failure prediction rates relative to those obtained in the developed and developing economies. The study then re-estimates Altman original model parameters with a significant improvement in failure prediction rates. Finally, using a stepwise MDA methodology, the study develops a three-variable model that improves upon Altman replicated and re-estimated models in classifying companies into failed and nonfailed categories.Keywords
This publication has 21 references indexed in Scilit:
- Detecting the risk of company failure at the Banque de FranceJournal of Banking & Finance, 1998
- Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)Journal of Banking & Finance, 1994
- Recognizing Financial Distress Patterns Using a Neural Network ToolFinancial Management, 1993
- BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION ‐ AN INVESTIGATION OF CASH FLOW BASED MODELS[1]Journal of Management Studies, 1988
- Predicting Bankruptcy: The Value Line Relative Financial Strength System vs. the Zeta® Bankruptcy Classification ApproachCFA Magazine, 1983
- DECOMPOSITION MEASURES AND THE PREDICTION OF FINANCIAL FAILUREJournal of Business Finance & Accounting, 1983
- ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporationsJournal of Banking & Finance, 1977
- Failing Company Discriminant AnalysisJournal of Accounting Research, 1974
- A Discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business FailureJournal of Accounting Research, 1972
- Financial Ratios As Predictors of FailureJournal of Accounting Research, 1966