Simulating Continental Surface Waters: An Application to Holocene Northern Africa

Abstract

A model (SWAM) to predict surface waters (lakes and wetlands) on the scale of atmospheric general circulation models is developed. SWAM is based on a linear reservoir hydrologic model and is driven by runoff, precipitation, evaporation, topography, and water transport directions. SWAM is applied to the modern climate using observed estimates of the hydrologic variables and a 5′ × 5′ digital terrain model to represent topography. It simulates the surface water area of northern Africa (about 1% of the land area) in reasonable agreement with observed estimates (0.65%). A middle Holocene (6000 yr BP) simulation using the results of the GENESIS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) illustrates the sensitivity of the simulated surface waters to climatic changes and the model’s utility as a diagnostic tool for AGCMs. SWAM and GENESIS capture the general pattern of climate change 6000 yr BP. There is an increase in the simulated surface water area from about 1% to about 3% of the land area, including an increase in the area of Lake Chad by about five times and extensive surface water throughout northern Mali, consistent with observed patterns of surface water change during the Holocene. Limitations in the modeling of surface waters appear to result from the relatively coarse resolution of global elevation data.