Does redistribution or local growth underpin rebuilding of Canada’s Northern cod?

Abstract

The stock structure of Canada’s Northern cod, the largest of many depleted groundfish stocks having multiple spawning areas, is rebuilding by redistribution and not solely by local population growth. In 2007-2008, late winter acoustic surveys suggested initial rebuilding in the southern-most part of the offshore range (Bonavista Corridor, NAFO Divisions 3KL), likely including fish dispersing from the inshore. Thereafter, acoustically-determined biomass increases averaged 30% per annum (to near 240 000 t in 2014). In contrast, formerly dominant stock areas farther north retained few fish, mostly juveniles. In 2015, however, biomass in the northern stock range (NAFO Division 2J) reached 65 000 t and mid-north Notre Dame Channel (3K) reached 101 000 t, with Bonavista Corridor declining to 136 000 t. Biomass pooled over all surveyed regions totaled 302 000 t, consistent with sustained 30% growth. Latitudinal gradients in cod size, age distributions and individual growth existed both historically and recently, but not in 2015. The evidence suggests that the rapid increases of depopulated northern groups resulted from redistribution from the south within a metapopulation.