Global trends and uncertainties in terrestrial denitrification and N 2 O emissions

Abstract

Soil nitrogen (N) budgets are used in a global, distributed flow-path model with 0.5° × 0.5° resolution, representing denitrification and N₂O emissions from soils, groundwater and riparian zones for the period 1900–2000 and scenarios for the period 2000–2050 based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Total agricultural and natural N inputs from N fertilizers, animal manure, biological N₂ fixation and atmospheric N deposition increased from 155 to 345 Tg N yr⁻¹ (Tg = teragram; 1 Tg = 10¹² g) between 1900 and 2000. Depending on the scenario, inputs are estimated to further increase to 408–510 Tg N yr⁻¹ by 2050. In the period 1900–2000, the soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal by plants) increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr⁻¹, and this may remain stable or further increase to 275 Tg yr⁻¹ by 2050, depending on the scenario. N₂ production from denitrification increased from 52 to 96 Tg yr⁻¹ between 1900 and 2000, and N₂O–N emissions from 10 to 12 Tg N yr⁻¹. The scenarios foresee a further increase to 142 Tg N₂–N and 16 Tg N₂O–N yr⁻¹ by 2050. Our results indicate that riparian buffer zones are an important source of N₂O contributing an estimated 0.9 Tg N₂O–N yr⁻¹ in 2000. Soils are key sites for denitrification and are much more important than groundwater and riparian zones in controlling the N flow to rivers and the oceans.