Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide
Open Access
- 17 April 2020
- preprint content
- other
- Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Abstract
Background: Current geographic spread of documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections shows heterogeneity. This study explores the role of age in potentially driving differentials in infection spread, epidemic potential, and rates of disease severity and mortality across countries.Methods: An age-stratified deterministic mathematical model that describes SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics was applied to 159 countries and territories with a population ≥1 million.Results: Assuming worst-case scenario for the pandemic, the results indicate that there could be stark regional differences in epidemic trajectories driven by differences in the distribution of the population by age. In the African Region (median age: 18.9 years), the median R0 was 1.05 versus 2.05 in the European Region (median age: 41.7 years), and the median (per 100 persons) for the infections rate was 22.5 (versus 69.0), for severe and/or critical disease cases rate was 3.3 (versus 13.0), and for death rate was 0.5 (versus 3.9).Conclusions: Age could be a driver of variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide. Countries with sizable adult and/or elderly populations and smaller children populations may experience large and rapid epidemics in absence of interventions. Meanwhile, countries with predominantly younger age cohorts may experience smaller and slower epidemics. These predictions, however, should not lead to complacency, as the pandemic could still have a heavy toll nearly everywhere.Keywords
This publication has 17 references indexed in Scilit:
- SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected PatientsThe New England Journal of Medicine, 2020
- Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in GermanyThe New England Journal of Medicine, 2020
- Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (COVID-19)Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory ,2020
- Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, ChinaThe Lancet, 2020
- Estimating age‐specific cumulative incidence for the 2009 influenza pandemic: a meta‐analysis of A(H1N1)pdm09 serological studies from 19 countriesInfluenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 2013
- Extinction thresholds in deterministic and stochastic epidemic modelsJournal of Biological Dynamics, 2012
- Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratioJournal of The Royal Society Interface, 2005
- Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the Basic Reproductive Rate: Tuberculosis as an ExampleAmerican Journal of Epidemiology, 1997
- A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer CodeTechnometrics, 1979
- THE OUTCOME OF A STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC—A NOTE ON BAILEY'S PAPERBiometrika, 1955