Climate Variability and the Outbreaks of Cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A Time Series Analysis
- 1 June 2011
- journal article
- Published by American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene in The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
- Vol. 84 (6), 862-869
- https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277
Abstract
Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1°C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association (P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar.This publication has 22 references indexed in Scilit:
- Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemicsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008
- Biofilms in water, its role and impact in human disease transmissionCurrent Opinion in Biotechnology, 2008
- The Effect of Rainfall on the Incidence of Cholera in BangladeshEpidemiology, 2008
- Viable but nonculturable Vibrio cholerae O1 in biofilms in the aquatic environment and their role in cholera transmissionProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007
- Climate variations and salmonellosis transmission in Adelaide, South Australia: a comparison between regression modelsInternational Journal of Biometeorology, 2007
- Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, AustraliaEnvironmental Health Perspectives, 2006
- Predictability of Vibrio cholerae in Chesapeake BayApplied and Environmental Microbiology, 2003
- Effects of Global Climate on Infectious Disease: the Cholera ModelClinical Microbiology Reviews, 2002
- Global Climate and Infectious Disease: The Cholera ParadigmScience, 1996
- Placental scanning with computer-linked gamma camera to detect impaired placental blood flow and intrauterine growth retardation.BMJ, 1975