The Persistence of Social Structure: Cohort, Class and Gender Effects on the Occupational Aspirations and Expectations of Canadian Youth

Abstract

From a rational action perspective, one might predict that the occupational aspirations and expectations of Canadian youth would have declined between the 1970s and the 1990s as the youth labour market deteriorated. Whether or not such a shift in the level of occupational goals was observed, a late modernity analysis would predict that social class, gender, and urban-rural residence would become less prominent determinants of aspirations and expectations, in contrast to a social structural prediction of continued strong structural effects. Analyses of baseline data from five longitudinal studies of school-work transitions conducted in Canada during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s lead us to reject the rational action argument—a decline in occupational aspirations and expectations was not observed. Instead, male occupational goals remained largely unchanged while female occupational ambitions rose. Social class continues to have strong independent effects on occupational goals, which appear to be mediated, to a considerable extent, through the streaming of high school students into academic or non-academic programmes. Gender continues to influence specific occupational aspirations and expectations, while rural youth continue to report somewhat lower occupational goals. The persistent structural effects on aspirations and expectations provide strong support for the social structural hypothesis.