Short-Term Spatio-Temporal Wind Power Forecast in Robust Look-ahead Power System Dispatch
- 30 September 2013
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid
- Vol. 5 (1), 511-520
- https://doi.org/10.1109/tsg.2013.2282300
Abstract
We propose a novel statistical wind power forecast framework, which leverages the spatio-temporal correlation in wind speed and direction data among geographically dispersed wind farms. Critical assessment of the performance of spatio-temporal wind power forecast is performed using realistic wind farm data from West Texas. It is shown that spatio-temporal wind forecast models are numerically efficient approaches to improving forecast quality. By reducing uncertainties in near-term wind power forecasts, the overall cost benefits on system dispatch can be quantified. We integrate the improved forecast with an advanced robust look-ahead dispatch framework. This integrated forecast and economic dispatch framework is tested in a modified IEEE RTS 24-bus system. Numerical simulation suggests that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6% using a robust look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with persistent wind forecast models.Keywords
This publication has 34 references indexed in Scilit:
- Short‐Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System OperationsInternational Statistical Review, 2012
- Spatio‐temporal analysis and modeling of short‐term wind power forecast errorsWind Energy, 2011
- Functional BoxplotsJournal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 2011
- Adaptive modelling and forecasting of offshore wind power fluctuations with Markov‐switching autoregressive modelsJournal of Forecasting, 2010
- Powering Up With Space-Time Wind ForecastingJournal of the American Statistical Association, 2010
- Blowing in the WindSignificance, 2007
- Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and EstimationJournal of the American Statistical Association, 2007
- Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy CenterJournal of the American Statistical Association, 2006
- Wind speed and power forecasting based on spatial correlation modelsIEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 1999
- The IEEE Reliability Test System-1996. A report prepared by the Reliability Test System Task Force of the Application of Probability Methods SubcommitteeIEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1999