Estimation of effective reproduction numbers for infectious diseases using serological survey data

Abstract

The effective reproduction number of an infection, denoted R_e, may be used to monitor the impact of a vaccination programme. If R_e is maintained below 1, then sustained endemic transmission of the infection cannot occur. In this paper we discuss methods for estimating R_e from serological survey data, allowing for age and individual heterogeneity. We describe semi‐parametric and parametric models, and obtain an upper bound on R_e when vaccine coverage and efficacy are not known. The methods are illustrated using data on mumps and rubella in England and Wales.