A 61-million-person experiment in social influence and political mobilization

Abstract

Political mobilization messages delivered to 61 million Facebook users during the 2010 US congressional elections directly influenced political self-expression, information seeking and real-world voting behaviour of millions of people and their friends, with social transmission occurring mainly between close friends and having a greater effect than the direct effect of the messages themselves. Online social networks are everywhere. They must be influencing the way society is developing, but hard evidence is scarce. For instance, the relative effectiveness of online friendships and face-to-face friendships as drivers of social change is not known. In what may be the largest experiment ever conducted with human subjects, James Fowler and colleagues randomly assigned messages to 61 million Facebook users on Election Day in the United States in 2010, and tracked their behaviour both online and offline, using publicly available records. The results show that the messages influenced the political communication, information-seeking and voting behaviour of millions of people. Social messages had more impact than informational messages and 'weak ties' were much less likely than 'strong ties' to spread behaviour via the social network. Thus online mobilization works primarily through strong-tie networks that may exist offline but have an online representation. Human behaviour is thought to spread through face-to-face social networks, but it is difficult to identify social influence effects in observational studies9,10,11,12,13, and it is unknown whether online social networks operate in the same way14–19. Here we report results from a randomized controlled trial of political mobilization messages delivered to 61 million Facebook users during the 2010 US congressional elections. The results show that the messages directly influenced political self-expression, information seeking and real-world voting behaviour of millions of people. Furthermore, the messages not only influenced the users who received them but also the users’ friends, and friends of friends. The effect of social transmission on real-world voting was greater than the direct effect of the messages themselves, and nearly all the transmission occurred between ‘close friends’ who were more likely to have a face-to-face relationship. These results suggest that strong ties are instrumental for spreading both online and real-world behaviour in human social networks.