Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains
- 28 June 2021
- book
- Published by World Bank
Abstract
To understand the longer term consequences of natural disasters for global value chains, this paper examines trade in the automobile and electronic sectors after the 2011 earthquake in Japan. Contrary to widespread expectations, the analysis shows that the shock did not lead to reshoring, nearshoring, or diversification; and trade in intermediate products was disrupted less than trade in final goods. Imports did shift to new suppliers, especially where dependence on Japan was greater. But production relocated to developing countries rather than to other top exporters. Despite important differences, the observed pattern of switching may be relevant to disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic.Keywords
This publication has 7 references indexed in Scilit:
- World Trade Report 2020Published by World Trade Organization ,2020
- Conceptual Aspects of Global Value ChainsPublished by National Bureau of Economic Research ,2019
- Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku EarthquakeThe Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019
- The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?The World Bank Economic Review, 2018
- The Next Generation of the Penn World TableAmerican Economic Review, 2015
- Organizing the Global Value ChainEconometrica, 2013
- Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysisJournal of International Economics, 2008