The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Québec, Canada
Open Access
- 22 May 2008
- journal article
- Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC in International Journal of Health Geographics
- Vol. 7 (1), 23
- https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-072x-7-23
Abstract
The impact of climate change and particularly increasing temperature on mortality has been examined for three cities in the province of Québec, Canada. Generalized linear Poisson regression has been fitted to the total daily mortality for each city. Smooth parametric cubic splines of temperature and humidity have been used to do nonlinear modeling of these parameters. The model, to control for day of the week and for non-temperature seasonal factors, used a smooth function of time, including delayed effects. The model was then used to assess variation in mortality for simulated future temperatures obtained from an atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled with downscaling regression techniques. Two CO2 emission scenarios are considered (scenarios A2 and B2). Projections are made for future periods around year 2020 (2010–2039), 2050 (2040–2069) and 2080 (2070–2099). A significant association between mortality and current temperature has been found for the three cities. Under CO2 emission scenarios A2 and B2, the mortality model predicts a significant increase in mortality in the summertime, and a smaller, but significant decrease in the fall season. The slight variations in projected mortality for future winter and spring seasons were found to be not statistically significant. The variations in projected annual mortality are dominated by an increase in mortality in the summer, which is not balanced by the decrease in mortality in the fall and winter seasons. The summer increase and the annual mortality range respectively from about 2% and 0.5% for the 2020 period, to 10% and 3% for the years around 2080. The difference between the mortality variations projected with the A2 or B2 scenarios was not statistically significant. For the three cities, the two CO2 emission scenarios considered led to an increase in annual mortality, which contrasts with most European countries, where the projected increase in summer mortality with respect to climate change is overbalanced by the decrease in winter mortality. This highlights the importance of place in such analyses. The method proposed here to establish these estimates is general and can also be applied to small cities, where mortality rates are relatively low (ex. two deaths/day).Keywords
This publication has 28 references indexed in Scilit:
- ON THE LINKAGE OF LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITH LOCAL CHARACTERISTICS OF DAILY PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: AN EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING METHODSPublished by World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd ,2010
- Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in the New York City RegionAmerican Journal of Public Health, 2007
- Influenza and the Winter Increase in Mortality in the United States, 1959-1999American Journal of Epidemiology, 2004
- Ambient Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Emergency Department VisitsEpidemiology, 2004
- Mortality and temperature in Sofia and LondonJournal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2003
- The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population.Environmental Health Perspectives, 2001
- An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change.Environmental Health Perspectives, 1997
- Methodological issues in studies of air pollution and daily counts of deaths or hospital admissions.Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 1996
- Description of the Canadian regional climate modelWater, Air, & Soil Pollution, 1995
- Air pollution and acute respiratory illness in five german communitiesEnvironmental Research, 1991