Wrong but Useful — What Covid-19 Epidemiologic Models Can and Cannot Tell Us

Abstract

Amid enormous uncertainty about the future of the Covid-19 pandemic, epidemiologic models are critical planning tools for policymakers, clinicians, and public health practitioners. Some models with apparently conflicting conclusions have received substantial press coverage, giving the impression that mathematical models are in general unreliable or inherently flawed. But infectious disease modeling is an expansive field with a long history, encompassing a range of methods and assumptions that are not necessarily directly comparable, or even designed for the same purpose (see box).