Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis: a case study of Indian oil refinery
- 17 June 2011
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Informa UK Limited in Production Planning & Control
- Vol. 23 (12), 903-921
- https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2011.586379
Abstract
This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.Keywords
This publication has 35 references indexed in Scilit:
- System-oriented supply chain risk managementProduction Planning & Control, 2009
- Procedure for reducing the risk of delayed deliveries in make-to-order productionProduction Planning & Control, 2009
- Pricing, service level and lot size decisions of a supply chain with risk-averse retailers: implications to practitionersProduction Planning & Control, 2009
- Incentive contract design in competing distribution channelsProduction Planning & Control, 2009
- Early-warning management of inner logistics risk in SMEs based on label-card systemProduction Planning & Control, 2009
- Risk management in oil and gas construction projects in VietnamInternational Journal of Energy Sector Management, 2007
- On the decomposition of value functionsOperations Research Letters, 1998
- A decision support system using judgmental modeling: a case of R&D in the pharmaceutical industryIEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 1991
- Accuracy and confidence in group judgmentOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1989
- On a short-coming of Saaty's method of analytic hierarchiesOmega, 1983