Ship Manoeuvring in Restricted Areas: An Attempt to Quantify Dangerous Situations Using a Probabilistic-Fuzzy Method

Abstract

This paper presents a practical application of the probabilistic-fuzzy method for assessment of the safety of a ship manoeuvring in waterways. The method, based on probabilistic risk analysis and elements of fuzzy logic, takes into account situations of threatened navigational safety and situations when a navigator intuitively thinks that the safety of manoeuvring ship is threatened. The probability of grounding a ship manoeuvring in a waterway bend is determined by means of simulation method. Then, with the use of experts' knowledge and tools of fuzzy logic the probability of a dangerous situation is determined. Two different approaches are applied for the determination of that probability. The results are compared.