A Multilevel Analysis of School Examination Results

Abstract

Data on examination results from inner London schools are analysed in relation to intake achievement, pupil gender and school type. The examination achievement, averaged over subjects, is studied as is achievement in the separate subjects of mathematics and English. Multilevel models are fitted, so that the variation between schools can be studied. It is shown that confidence intervals for school ‘residuals’ or ‘effects’ are wide, so that few schools can be separated reliably. In particular, no fine rank ordering of schools legitimately can be produced. A bivariate model for mathematics and English examination achievement scores is fitted. The student level variance for both subjects is shown to increase from the lowest to the highest intake achievement group, with moderately high correlation between the subjects. The paper discusses the implications of these findings for the publication of ‘league tables’ of school examination and test scores.