Retail turnover in the East Midlands: A regional application of a gravity model

Abstract

Gibson M. and Pullen M. (1972) Retail turnover in the East Midlands: A regional application of a gravity model, Reg. Studies 6, 183–196. A gravity model of the type developed by Black is constructed on a regional scale covering the East Midlands Economic Planning Region. The model is calibrated on the 1961 Census of Distribution, and is used to forecast shopping turnover in local authority areas for 1981. A strong pattern emerges of rapid growth in suburbs and often sluggish growth in large urban centres. Allowance for the effects of increasing congestion and increasing car ownership generally reinforce these conclusions. Some of the problems arising from the operation and the use for forecasting of the gravity model are discussed.