Extrapolation of carbon dioxide emission scenarios to meet long-term atmospheric stabilization targets

Abstract

Numerous CO₂ emission scenarios have recently been proposed. However, the time ranges of most scenarios are not long enough to allow analysis of their climate implications. An extrapolation method is proposed to link the emission scenarios with atmospheric stabilization targets that take effect centuries after the scenario period. Using this method, emission scenarios proposed previously are extensively applied to 350 to 750ppmv CO₂ targets during the 23^rd century, and allowable emission ranges during the 21^st century are discussed.