ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SYRIA
- 1 February 2013
- journal article
- research article
- Published by World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd in Climate Change Economics
- Vol. 04 (01)
- https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813500024
Abstract
There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop comprehensive tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and sub-national-level dynamic computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. We find that, despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers may reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit.Keywords
This publication has 10 references indexed in Scilit:
- Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop productionField Crops Research, 2011
- THE COPENHAGEN ACCORD/CANCÚN AGREEMENTS EMISSION PLEDGES FOR 2020: EXPLORING ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTSClimate Change Economics, 2011
- Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: a reviewWires Climate Change, 2010
- Food Security and Adaptation to Climate Change: What Do We Know?Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC ,2009
- Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change PolicyPublished by Taylor & Francis Ltd ,2009
- The Prospects of the Impact of Desertification on Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and IraqPublished by Springer Science and Business Media LLC ,2004
- The DSSAT cropping system modelEuropean Journal of Agronomy, 2003
- Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level RiseEnvironmental and Resource Economics, 2001
- Potential impact of climate change on world food supplyNature, 1994
- Factor Intensities and Locational Linkages of Rural Consumption Patterns in Sierra LeoneAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1978