Changing Frequency and Intensity of Rainfall Extremes over India from 1951 to 2003

Abstract

Using a 1951–2003 gridded daily rainfall dataset for India, the authors assess trends in the intensity and frequency of exceedance of thresholds derived from the 90th and the 99th percentile of daily rainfall. A nonparametric method is used to test for monotonic trends at each location. A field significance test is also applied at the national level to assess whether the individual trends identified could occur by chance in an analysis of the large number of time series analyzed. Statistically significant increasing trends in extremes of rainfall are identified over many parts of India, consistent with the indications from climate change models and the hypothesis that the hydrological cycle will intensify as the planet warms. Specifically, for the exceedance of the 99th percentile of daily rainfall, all locations where a significant increasing trend in frequency of exceedance is identified also exhibit a significant trend in rainfall intensity. However, extreme precipitation frequency over many parts of India also appears to exhibit a decreasing trend, especially for the exceedance of the 90th percentile of daily rainfall. Predominantly increasing trends in the intensity of extreme rainfall are observed for both exceedance thresholds.