Does Diagnostic Information Contribute to Predicting Functional Decline in Long-Term Care?
- 1 June 2000
- journal article
- Published by Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health) in Medical Care
- Vol. 38 (6), 647-659
- https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-200006000-00006
Abstract
Compared with the acute-care setting, use of risk-adjusted outcomes in long-term care is relatively new. With the recent development of administrative databases in long-term care, such uses are likely to increase. The objective of this study was to determine the contribution of ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes from administrative data in predicting functional decline in long-term care. We used a retrospective sample of 15,693 long-term care residents in VA facilities in 1996. We defined functional decline as an increase of > or =2 in the activities of daily living (ADL) summary score from baseline to semiannual assessment. A base regression model was compared to a full model enhanced with ICD-9-CM codes. We calculated validated measures of model performance in an independent cohort. The full model fit the data significantly better than the base model as indicated by the likelihood ratio test (chi2 = 179, df = 11, P <0.001). The full model predicted decline more accurately than the base model (R2 = 0.06 and 0.05, respectively) and discriminated better (c statistics were 0.70 and 0.68). Observed and predicted risks of decline were similar within deciles between the 2 models, suggesting good calibration. Validated R2 statistics were 0.05 and 0.04 for the full and base models; validated c statistics were 0.68 and 0.66. Adding specific diagnostic variables to administrative data modestly improves the prediction of functional decline in long-term care residents. Diagnostic information from administrative databases may present a cost-effective alternative to chart abstraction in providing the data necessary for accurate risk adjustment.Keywords
This publication has 38 references indexed in Scilit:
- Functional status outcomes for assessment of quality in long-term careInternational Journal for Quality in Health Care, 1999
- The influence of risk adjustment methods on conclusions about quality of care in nursing homes based on outcome measures.The Gerontologist, 1998
- Predicting In-Hospital Deaths from Coronary Artery Bypass Graft SurgeryMedical Care, 1998
- The risks of risk adjustmentJAMA, 1997
- Judging hospitals by severity-adjusted mortality rates: the influence of the severity-adjustment method.American Journal of Public Health, 1996
- Improving the outcomes of coronary artery bypass surgery in New York StatePublished by American Medical Association (AMA) ,1994
- Clinical Versus Administrative Data Bases for CABG SurgeryMedical Care, 1992
- Using Clinical Variables to Estimate the Risk of Patient MortalityMedical Care, 1991
- Analyzing hospital mortality. The consequences of diversity in patient mixPublished by American Medical Association (AMA) ,1991
- Rethinking Long‐Term CareJournal of the American Geriatrics Society, 1990