Correlations of Fish Catch and Environmental Factors in the Gulf of Maine

Abstract

In an investigation of catches of 17 commercial marine species of fish and shellfish from the Gulf of Maine, 10 showed statistically significant correlations with sea temperatures at St. Andrews, N.B., or Boothbay Harbour, Maine. Most fish records contained at least 40 yr of data. Descriptive equations are produced for four species based first on the correlation between catch and sea temperature and second on the correlation between catch and sea temperature allowing for fishing effort. Inclusion of fishing effort, not surprisingly, improved the correlations for all of the species so examined. The equations permitted the "prediction" of later parts of the records from earlier parts.Considering the fish species collectively, the Gulf of Maine system from 1940 to 1959 appeared to be in equilibrium with little fluctuation in the total commercial biomass. We interpret the large fluctuations in individual species abundance as resulting from a combination of fishing pressure and to a significant degree oceanic climate as represented by sea temperature. The small fluctuations in the total biomass displays the species variation, with their differing climatic "preferences," as well as possible predator (including man)–prey relationships. Environmentally imposed patterns underlie at least 50% of the fluctuations in catch of many species and the understanding of these fluctuations is basic to effective management.