Overcoming the Inverse Probability Fallacy
- 1 January 2008
- journal article
- Published by Hogrefe Publishing Group in Methodology
- Vol. 4 (4), 152-158
- https://doi.org/10.1027/1614-2241.4.4.152
Abstract
Many common misinterpretations of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) are related to the inverse probability fallacy. The inverse probability fallacy is the mistaken belief that the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, P(D|H0), is equivalent to the probability of the null hypothesis given the data, P(H0|D). We contrasted the effectiveness of two teaching interventions aimed at reducing this fallacy: Instruction in Bayes’ theorem (group B) and instruction in the formal logic of NHST (Modus Tollens, group MT). Both interventions were remarkably effective in reducing fallacy. At pre-test, 82% of students agreed with at least one statement of the inverse probability fallacy. At post-B-intervention this figure was 49% and at post-MT, it was 48%. A smaller, but still substantial, effect remained in both groups at a five-week follow-up. This suggests that the essential ingredient in overcoming the inverse probability fallacy is simply to expose the null ritual as problematic.Keywords
This publication has 12 references indexed in Scilit:
- Inference by Eye: Confidence Intervals and How to Read Pictures of Data.American Psychologist, 2005
- The Null Ritual: What You Always Wanted to Know About Significance Testing but Were Afraid to AskPublished by SAGE Publications ,2004
- Beyond significance testing: Reforming data analysis methods in behavioral research.Published by American Psychological Association (APA) ,2004
- Significance Tests Die HardTheory & Psychology, 1995
- The earth is round (p < .05).American Psychologist, 1994
- Design Experiments: Theoretical and Methodological Challenges in Creating Complex Interventions in Classroom SettingsJournal of the Learning Sciences, 1992
- Syllogistic inferenceCognition, 1984
- Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunitiesPublished by Cambridge University Press (CUP) ,1982
- The Case Against Statistical Significance TestingHarvard Educational Review, 1978
- Changes in critical thinking, attitudes, and values from freshman to senior years.Journal of Educational Psychology, 1963