Selective drop-out in longitudinal studies and non-biased prediction of behaviour disorders
Top Cited Papers
Open Access
- 1 September 2009
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Royal College of Psychiatrists in The British Journal of Psychiatry
- Vol. 195 (3), 249-256
- https://doi.org/10.1192/bjp.bp.108.053751
Abstract
Background Participant drop-out occurs in all longitudinal studies, and if systematic, may lead to selection biases and erroneous conclusions being drawn from a study. Aims We investigated whether drop out in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC) was systematic or random, and if systematic, whether it had an impact on the prediction of disruptive behaviour disorders. Method Teacher reports of disruptive behaviour among currently participating, previously participating and never participating children aged 8 years in the ALSPAC longitudinal study were collected. Data on family factors were obtained in pregnancy. Simulations were conducted to explain the impact of selective drop-out on the strength of prediction. Results Drop out from the ALSPAC cohort was systematic and children who dropped out were more likely to suffer from disruptive behaviour disorder. Systematic participant drop-out according to the family variables, however, did not alter the association between family factors obtained in pregnancy and disruptive behaviour disorder at 8 years of age. Conclusions Cohort studies are prone to selective drop-out and are likely to underestimate the prevalence of psychiatric disorder. This empirical study and the simulations confirm that the validity of regression models is only marginally affected despite range restrictions after selective drop-out.Keywords
This publication has 34 references indexed in Scilit:
- Observational Research, Randomised Trials, and Two Views of Medical SciencePLoS Medicine, 2008
- Associations between Peer Nominations, Teacher Ratings, Self-Reports, and Observations of Malicious and Disruptive BehaviorAssessment, 2006
- Pseudo-likelihood methods for longitudinal binary data with non-ignorable missing responses and covariatesStatistics in Medicine, 2005
- An appraisal of methods for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data with MAR drop-outsStatistics in Medicine, 2005
- Domestic violence risk during and after pregnancy: findings from a British longitudinal studyBJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, 2005
- Maternal Lifestyle Factors in Pregnancy Risk of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and Associated Behaviors: Review of the Current EvidenceAmerican Journal of Psychiatry, 2003
- ALSPAC–The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and ChildrenPaediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 2001
- The Twelfth Jack Tizard Memorial Lecture *Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 1995
- Follow-up and outcome of low birthweight infants: Conceptual issues and a methodology reviewJournal of Paediatrics and Child Health, 1989
- An Introduction to Sample Selection Bias in Sociological DataAmerican Sociological Review, 1983