Glaciers and Climate in Svalbard: Statistical Analysis and Reconstruction of the Brøggerbreen Mass Balance for the Last 77 Years

Abstract

The long series of mass-balance data obtained by the Norsk Polarinstitutt on Brøggerbreen for the period 1967–88 has been correlated to climatological parameters from the meteorological station in Ny-Ålesund. The best multiple correlation coefficient was obtained between mass balance and positive summer and autumn temperatures combined with winter precipitations, for which R = 0.90. The regression equation gives a very good agreement between observed and estimated mass balance for Brøggerbreen. A test for 8 years which includes summer long-wave radiation, gives a coefficient of R = 0.98. Based on the good correlation between temperatures at several stations, we reconstructed summer temperatures in Longyearbyen and Brøggerbreen mass balances for 1912–88. The end of the cold period before 1918 is connected with historical observations of the maximum advance of cirque glaciers. After an increase between 1912 and 1920, summer and autumn temperatures decreased slowly. From 1920 this decay has been of −0.7°C. Mass balance has been negative since 1918, and the total mass lost at Brøggerbreen is 34.35 m of water equivalent. For the period with available data in Ny-Ålesund (1969–88), a very slight cooling during the ablation period and an increase in winter precipitation has maintained the reduction of the net balance deficit.