Analysis of factors predictive of mortality in alcoholic hepatitis and derivation and validation of the Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score

Abstract

Introduction: Alcoholic hepatitis is associated with a high short term mortality. We aimed to identify those factors associated with mortality and define a simple score which would predict outcome in our population. Methods: We identified 241 patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded on the day of admission (day 1) and on days 6–9. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify variables related to outcome at 28 days and 84 days after admission. These variables were included in the Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score (GAHS) and its ability to predict outcome assessed. The GAHS was validated in a separate dataset of 195 patients. Results: The GAHS was derived from five variables independently associated with outcome: age (p = 0.001) and, from day 1 results, serum bilirubin (pConclusions: Using variables associated with mortality we have derived and validated an accurate scoring system to assess outcome in alcoholic hepatitis. This score was able to identify patients at greatest risk of death throughout their admission.