The Uncertainty in the Prediction of Flash Floods in the Northern Mediterranean Environment
Open Access
- 1 December 2002
- journal article
- Published by American Meteorological Society in Journal of Hydrometeorology
- Vol. 3 (6), 714-727
- https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0714:tuitpo>2.0.co;2
Abstract
Development of an operational flood forecasting system and assessment of forecast uncertainty are the principal topics of this paper. Flood forecasting procedures are developed for a Mediterranean environment. A procedure that uses the Ensemble Prediction System as input for a semidistributed hydrologic model is presented. A rainfall downscaling model is used to bridge the scale gap between numerical weather prediction model output and hydrologic modeling input. The results are illustrated for the November 1994 Piedmont flood.Keywords
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