On the Selection of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Seismic Hazard Analysis

Abstract

International audienceA key element in any seismic hazard analysis is the selection of appropriate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). In an earlier paper, focused on the selection and adjustment of ground-motion models for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in moderately active regions--with limited data and few, if any, indigenous models--Cotton et al. (2006) proposed seven criteria as the basis for selecting GMPEs. Recent experience in applying these criteria, faced with several new GMPEs developed since the Cotton et al. (2006) paper was published and a significantly larger strong-motion database, has led to consideration of how the criteria could be refined and of other conditions that could be included to meet the original objectives of Cotton et al. (2006). In fact, about a dozen new GMPEs are published each year, and this number appears to be increasing. Additionally, Cotton et al. (2006) concluded that the criteria should not be excessively specific, tied to the state-of-the-art in ground-motion modeling at the time of writing and thus remaining static, but rather should be sufficiently flexible to be adaptable to the continuing growth of the global strong-motion database and the continued evolution of GMPE