MEASURING THE EFFECT OF POLICY INTERVENTIONS AT THE POPULATION LEVEL: SOME METHODOLOGICAL CONCERNS
- 30 September 2012
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Wiley in Health Economics
- Vol. 21 (10), 1234-1249
- https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1783
Abstract
Health policy evaluations estimate the response of population aggregate outcomes to interventions. However, clarity on the form of the expected causal relationship, the parameter identification strategy, and the mode of hypothesis testing is required to overcome a number of conceptual and methodological problems. We use the New Jersey statewide smoking ban as an example. We examine statewide admission rates for acute myocardial infarctions, strokes and lower limb fractures, and emergency room encounter rates for asthma exacerbations before and after the smoking ban. We discuss the identification options and show the sensitivity of estimates of the response function to different specifications of the stochastic and intervention components and to different modes of inference. Model misspecification is demonstrated by rolling Chow tests for structural breaks in repeated observations. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Keywords
This publication has 37 references indexed in Scilit:
- Declines in Acute Myocardial Infarction After Smoke-Free Laws and Individual Risk Attributable to Secondhand SmokeCirculation, 2009
- Reduction in Suicide Mortality Following a New National Alcohol Policy in Slovenia: An Interrupted Time-Series AnalysisAmerican Journal of Public Health, 2009
- Declines in Hospital Admissions for Acute Myocardial Infarction in New York State After Implementation of a Comprehensive Smoking BanAmerican Journal of Public Health, 2007
- Effect of public smoking ban in Helena, Montana: When results look too good to be true, they probably are: Fig 1BMJ, 2004
- How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2004
- Effects of Limiting Medicaid Drug-Reimbursement Benefits on the Use of Psychotropic Agents and Acute Mental Health Services by Patients with SchizophreniaNew England Journal of Medicine, 1994
- No Adjustments Are Needed for Multiple ComparisonsEpidemiology, 1990
- Analysis of interrupted time series mortality trends: an example to evaluate regionalized perinatal care.American Journal of Public Health, 1981
- Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral MethodsEconometrica, 1969
- A change in level of a non-stationary time seriesBiometrika, 1965