Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states
Open Access
- 6 November 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science
- Vol. 370 (6517), 691-697
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd7672
Abstract
Although most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in low-resource countries, little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in such contexts. Data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide a detailed view into severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission pathways and mortality in a high-incidence setting. Reported cases and deaths have been concentrated in younger cohorts than would be expected from observations in higher-income countries, even after accounting for demographic differences across settings. Among 575,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases, infection probabilities ranged from 4.7 to 10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contact types, respectively. Same-age contacts were associated with the greatest infection risk. Case fatality ratios spanned 0.05% at ages of 5 to 17 years to 16.6% at ages of 85 years or more. Primary data from low-resource countries are urgently needed to guide control measures.Funding Information
- National Science Foundation (CCF-1918628)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (16IPA16092427)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD073964)
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