Empirically Downscaled Multimodel Ensemble Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios for Norway

Abstract

A number of different global climate model scenarios are used in order to infer local climate scenarios for various locations in Norway. Results from empirically downscaled multimodel ensembles of temperature and precipitation for the period 2000–50 are presented, based on common EOFs of large-scale temperature and sea level pressure fields. Comparisons with actual records for the past show that the multimodel ensemble range tends to span the observations. All scenarios for temperature change indicate a future warming, but the sea level pressure–based scenarios for precipitation are characterized by a large scatter about zero change. The primary cause for the large spread in precipitation trend estimates is attributed to differences between the various global climate scenarios. It is also acknowledged that the sea level pressure–based empirical models may underestimate the trends as they do not take directly into account increases in the precipitation due to increased temperatures. Nevertheless, in some locations the majority of the ensemble members suggest wetter springtime conditions.