Democracy and militarized interstate conflict, 1816–1965

Abstract

An investigation of the relationship between “joint democracy” and militarized interstate conflict over the period 1816–1965 at the dyadic level confirms the inhibitory effect of democracy reported by others. This effect is weaker with respect to less violent types of interstate conflict than with wars but significant nevertheless. This supports the argument that the lower level of conflict among democratic states is mainly due to the way in which they manage serious conflicts with one another rather than to the avoidance of serious conflict. The conflict‐reducing nature of “joint democracy” is present and strong even after controlling for the effects of geographical proximity, relative power, alliance, power status, development, militarization, and the presence of a hegemon. This leads to the conclusion that it is highly unlikely that the relationship found is a spurious one.