Modelling Trip Distribution Using the Gravity Model and Fratar's Method

Abstract

Trip Distribution is a difficult and significant model in the urban transportation planning process. This paper creates and assesses a satisfactory model of the trip distribution stage for the Nasiriyah city by using two models, Gravity and Fratar methods. A large sample was used for developing the model. The research methodology depends on discussing the theoretical fundamentals of the various methods for estimating the trips distribution and examining the suitability of these fundamentals for the conditions of the selected study area. Two different models had been used, namely; Frater and Gravity model. These models were calibrated using real data. The study tests the accuracy of the models, including overall statistical assessments of the predicted movements. Finally, the study recommended to use Fratar Method. These results had been confirmed to the literature that, if the area is a homogenous growth, the best model is the growth factor (Fratar's method) and if the area is experiencing rapid changes. The gravity model will produce satisfactory results because it takes into account the competition in different land uses.