Future costs of dementia-related long-term care: exploring future scenarios
- 8 April 2010
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in International Psychogeriatrics
- Vol. 23 (1), 20-30
- https://doi.org/10.1017/s1041610210000025
Abstract
Background: This study explores how the views of a panel of experts on dementia would affect projected long-term care expenditure for older people with dementia in England in the year 2031.Methods: A Delphi-style approach was used to gather the views of experts. The projections were carried out using a macro-simulation model of future demand and associated expenditure for long-term care by older people with dementia.Results: The panel chose statements that suggested a small reduction in the prevalence of dementia over the next fifty years, a freeze in the numbers of people in care homes, and an increase in the qualifications and pay of care assistants who look after older people with dementia. Projections of expenditure on long-term care that seek to capture the views of the panel suggest that future expenditure on long-term care for this group will rise from 0.6% of GDP in 2002 to between 0.82% and 0.96% of GDP in 2031. This range is lower than the projected expenditure of 0.99% of GDP in 2031 obtained under a range of base case assumptions.Conclusions: This paper attempts to bridge the gap between qualitative forecasting methods and quantitative future expenditure modelling and has raised a number of important methodological issues. Incorporating the panel's views into projections of future expenditure in long-term care for people with dementia would result in projected expenditure growing more slowly than it would otherwise.This publication has 15 references indexed in Scilit:
- Clinical and cost effectiveness of services for early diagnosis and intervention in dementiaInternational Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 2009
- The effect of dementia trends and treatments on longevity and disability: a simulation model based on the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS)Age and Ageing, 2008
- Cognitive impairment in older people: future demand for long‐term care services and the associated costsInternational Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 2007
- An Estimate of the Worldwide Prevalence and Direct Costs of Dementia in 2003Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders, 2006
- Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus studyThe Lancet, 2006
- An evidence and consensus based guideline for acute diarrhoea managementArchives of Disease in Childhood, 2001
- Profile of disability in elderly people: estimates from a longitudinal population studyBMJ, 1999
- Costs of formal care for frail older people in England:: the resource implications study of the MRC cognitive function and ageing study (RIS MRC CFAS)Social Science & Medicine (1982), 1999
- Projections of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset.American Journal of Public Health, 1998
- Cognitive function and dementia in six areas of England and Wales: the distribution of MMSE and prevalence of GMS organicity level in the MRC CFA StudyPsychological Medicine, 1998