The phenology mismatch hypothesis: are declines of migrant birds linked to uneven global climate change?
- 11 December 2009
- journal article
- Published by Wiley in Journal of Animal Ecology
- Vol. 79 (1), 98-108
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01610.x
Abstract
1. Migrant bird populations are declining and have been linked to anthropogenic climate change. The phenology mismatch hypothesis predicts that migrant birds, which experience a greater rate of warming in their breeding grounds compared to their wintering grounds, are more likely to be in decline, because their migration will occur later and they may then miss the early stages of the breeding season. Population trends will also be negatively correlated with distance, because the chances of phenology mismatch increase with number of staging sites. 2. Population trends from the Palaearctic (1990-2000) and Nearctic (1980-2006) were collated for 193 spatially separate migrant bird populations, along with temperature trends for the wintering and breeding areas. An index of phenology mismatch was calculated as the difference between wintering and breeding temperature trends. 3. In the Nearctic, phenology mismatch was correlated with population declines as predicted, but in the Palaearctic, distance was more important. This suggests that differential global climate change may be responsible for contributing to some migrant species' declines, but its effects may be more important in the Nearctic. 4. Differences in geography and so average migration distance, migrant species composition and history of anthropogenic change in the two areas may account for the differences in the strength of the importance of phenology mismatch on migrant declines in the Nearctic and Palaearctic.Keywords
This publication has 35 references indexed in Scilit:
- Adaptive Phenotypic Plasticity in Response to Climate Change in a Wild Bird PopulationScience, 2008
- Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory birdNature, 2006
- Assortative Mating as a Mechanism for Rapid Evolution of a Migratory DivideScience, 2005
- Variation in climate warming along the migration route uncouples arrival and breeding datesGlobal Change Biology, 2004
- Avian migration phenology and global climate changeProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2003
- How great tits maintain synchronization of their hatch date with food supply in response to long‐term variability in temperatureJournal of Animal Ecology, 2003
- Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant birdNature, 2001
- 25-Year Study of the Population Development of Central European Songbirds: A General Decline, Most Evident in Long-Distance MigrantsThe Science of Nature, 1998
- UK birds are laying eggs earlierNature, 1997
- Foraging guilds of North American birdsEnvironmental Management, 1985