A Probabilistic Displacement-based Vulnerability Assessment Procedure for Earthquake Loss Estimation
- 1 January 2004
- journal article
- Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC in Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
- Vol. 2 (2), 173-219
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-004-2290-8
Abstract
Earthquake loss estimation studies require predictions to be made of the proportion of a building class falling within discrete damage bands from a specified earthquake demand. These predictions should be made using methods that incorporate both computational efficiency and accuracy such that studies on regional or national levels can be effectively carried out, even when the triggering of multiple earthquake scenarios, as opposed to the use of probabilistic hazard maps and uniform hazard spectra, is employed to realistically assess seismic demand and its consequences on the built environment. Earthquake actions should be represented by a parameter that shows good correlation to damage and that accounts for the relationship between the frequency content of the ground motion and the fundamental period of the building; hence recent proposals to use displacement response spectra. A rational method is proposed herein that defines the capacity of a building class by relating its deformation potential to its fundamental period of vibration at different limit states and comparing this with a displacement response spectrum. The uncertainty in the geometrical, material and limit state properties of a building class is considered and the first-order reliability method, FORM, is used to produce an approximate joint probability density function (JPDF) of displacement capacity and period. The JPDF of capacity may be used in conjunction with the lognormal cumulative distribution function of demand in the classical reliability formula to calculate the probability of failing a given limit state. Vulnerability curves may be produced which, although not directly used in the methodology, serve to illustrate the conceptual soundness of the method and make comparisons with other methods.Keywords
This publication has 10 references indexed in Scilit:
- Scaling of spectral displacement ordinates with damping ratiosEarthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 2004
- Derivation of vulnerability functions for European-type RC structures based on observational dataEngineering Structures, 2003
- Comparing Loss Estimation with Observed Damage: A Study of the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in TurkeyBulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2002
- Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insuranceJournal of Seismology, 2002
- Seismic Fragility of RC Structural Walls: Displacement ApproachJournal of Structural Engineering, 2001
- Intensity-based seismic risk assessmentSoil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2000
- Seismic Reliability of RC Frames with Uncertain Drift and Member CapacityJournal of Structural Engineering, 1999
- Uncertainty analysis of strength and ductility of confined reinforced concrete membersEngineering Structures, 1999
- Development of Building Damage Functions for Earthquake Loss EstimationEarthquake Spectra, 1997
- Cyclic Behavior of Large Beam-Column AssembliesEarthquake Spectra, 1985