A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd
- 20 April 2007
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Epidemiology and Infection
- Vol. 136 (2), 263-272
- https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268807008400
Abstract
We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.Keywords
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