Structural Reliability Assessment of the Oman India Pipeline

Abstract
Reliability techniques are increasingly finding application in design. The special design conditions for the deep water sections of the Oman India Pipeline dictate their use since the experiences basis for application of standard deterministic techniques is inadequate. The paper discusses the reliability analysis as applied to the Oman India Pipeline, including selection of a collapse model, characterization of the variability in the parameter that affect pipe resistance to collapse, and implementation of first and second order reliability analyses to assess the probability of pipe failure. The reliability analysis results are used as the basis for establishing the pipe wall thickness requirements for the pipeline. Introduction One of the principal aims of engineering design is the assume of system performance within economic constraints. The commonly used approach of designing by deterministic safety factor has several limitations, e.g., it tends to be overly conservative for many practical situations and it does not provide any qualification of the design reliability. The form has obvious economic implications and the latter fails to deliver the needed input for the risk evaluation and decision making process. These limitations become sharply focused in a design situation which is inherently probabilistic due to the natural variability and uncertain associated with the analysis, installation and service conditions associated with a high cost deep-sea pipeline. For better utilization of resources, justified levels of safety, and improved quantification of risks, alternative approach of probabilistic design needs to be considered. In this approach the design evaluation explicitly accounts variability and uncertain in key parameters ormodels pertinent to the design process. The condition of any structure with respect to failure can be described as being in the safe state or the filled state. The between these states is the so-called limit state. The limit states considered in the design of the Oman India Pipeline 1 are:Serviceability limit state (loss of stability, yielding).Fatigue limit stateUltimate limit state (local buckling, bursting).Progressive limit state (progressive buckling, rupture). This paper is limited to probabilistic design against local buckling under hydrostatic pressure and bending. It describes the methodology, associated assumptions and statistical characterization of input parameters for the pipeline structure reliability analysis. Other limit states have been considered as pat of the overall design philosophy for the pipeline, but are not presented here. Deterministic Buckling Model and Loading Conditions Failure Model. The Oman India Pipeline will utilize many thousands of individually manufactured large diameter, thick-wall pipe segments of X-70 grade line-pipe steel. The pipeline is subjected to high external pressure due to water depth and bending during installation and potentially during operation For these conditions, the generally expected (governing) mode of is plastic collapse.