The Limitations of Risk Factors as Prognostic Tools

Abstract

Identification of new risk factors for specific diseases is an enduring theme in medical research. Advances in molecular biology, genetics, and computational biology are accelerating the pace of this work. The research seeks to increase our understanding of the causes of diseases, but there is also hope that the recognition of new risk factors will lead to improved methods for identifying persons who are in the early stages of, or at high risk for, the diseases of concern. Research has shown, however, that a risk factor must have a much stronger association with the disease outcome than we ordinarily see . . .