This paper presents a new and alternative method (in the context of urban drainage) for probabilistic hydrodynamical analysis of drainage systems in general and especially prediction of combined sewer overflow. Using a probabilistic shell it is possible to implement both input and parameter uncertainties on an application of the commercial urban drainage model MOUSE combined with the probabilistic First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Applying statistical characteristics on several years of rainfall, it is possible to derive a parameterization of the rainfall input and the failure probability and return period of combined sewer overflow to receiving waters can be found.