Risk Assessment Models for Wheat Fusarium Head Blight Epidemics Based on Within-Season Weather Data
Open Access
- 1 April 2003
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Scientific Societies in Phytopathology®
- Vol. 93 (4), 428-435
- https://doi.org/10.1094/phyto.2003.93.4.428
Abstract
Logistic regression models for wheat Fusarium head blight were developed using information collected at 50 location-years, including four states, representing three different U.S. wheat-production regions. Non-parametric correlation analysis and stepwise logistic regression analysis identified combinations of temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall or durations of specified weather conditions, for 7 days prior to anthesis, and 10 days beginning at crop anthesis, as potential predictor variables. Prediction accuracy of developed logistic regression models ranged from 62 to 85%. Models suitable for application as a disease warning system were identified based on model prediction accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and availability of weather variables at crop anthesis. Four of the identified models correctly classified 84% of the 50 location-years. A fifth model that used only pre-anthesis weather conditions correctly classified 70% of the location-years. The most useful predictor variables were the duration (h) of precipitation 7 days prior to anthesis, duration (h) that temperature was between 15 and 30°C 7 days prior to anthesis, and the duration (h) that temperature was between 15 and 30°C and relative humidity was greater than or equal to 90%. When model performance was evaluated with an independent validation set (n = 9), prediction accuracy was only 6% lower than the accuracy for the original data sets. These results indicate that narrow time periods around crop anthesis can be used to predict Fusarium head blight epidemics.Keywords
This publication has 15 references indexed in Scilit:
- Using Weather Variables Pre- and Post-heading to Predict Deoxynivalenol Content in Winter WheatPlant Disease, 2002
- Daily Inoculum Levels of Gibberella zeae on Wheat SpikesPlant Disease, 1999
- Predicting wheat head blight incidence using models based on meteorological factors in Pergamino, ArgentinaEuropean Journal of Plant Pathology, 1996
- Diurnal Release of Ascospores byGibberella zeaein Inoculated Wheat PlotsPlant Disease, 1996
- Fusarium ear blight (scab) in small grain cereals—a reviewPlant Pathology, 1995
- Biological Impact and Risk Assessment in Plant PathologyAnnual Review of Phytopathology, 1993
- Inoculum production and survival of Gibberella zeae in maize and wheat residuesCanadian Journal of Plant Pathology, 1988
- Late-Season Colonization and Survival ofFusarium graminearumGroup II in Cornstalks in MinnesotaPlant Disease, 1984
- Effect of Water Potential on Reproduction and Spore Germination byFusarium roseum'Graminearum,' 'Culmorum,' and 'Avenaceum'Phytopathology®, 1981
- Ecological Aspects of Ascospore Discharge in Gibberella zeaePhytopathology®, 1975