Analyzing the historical development of the environmental uncertainty construct

Abstract

The concept of environmental uncertainty is recognized as a fundamental element of the strategic management and organizational theory literature. Unfortunately, the development of inconsistent conceptualizations and operationalizations of uncertainty have muddled the true meanings of the construct. In an effort to reverse this disturbing trend, this paper systematically analyzes the historical development of the uncertainty construct. Seminal management literature is used to trace the construct’s evolution over the last 60 years and to speak to the original meanings of its key elements. The rise of the information uncertainty and resource dependence schools is explored, as is the evolution of the construct’s operationalization from simple to complex measures. Insights provided by this analysis form the basis of a categorization scheme for conceptualizations and operationalizations of uncertainty. This categorization and the discussion that accompanies it are intended to provide future researchers with greater precision and consistency in the use of the environmental uncertainty construct.