Vaccines against Avian Influenza — A Race against Time

Abstract

Avian influenza A (H5N1) virus poses an important pandemic threat. A study by the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the consequences of a severe pandemic could, in the United States, include 200 million people infected, 90 million clinically ill, and 2 million dead.¹ The study estimates that 30 percent of all workers would become ill and 2.5 percent would die, with 30 percent of workers missing a mean of three weeks of work — resulting in a decrease in the gross domestic product of 5 percent. Furthermore, 18 million to 45 million people would require outpatient care, and economic costs would total approximately $675 billion. As of March 10, 2006, the World Health Organization (WHO) had reported 176 confirmed human cases of influenza A (H5N1) across seven countries, with 97 deaths (a 55 percent mortality rate for identified cases).²