The Changing Demographic and Economic Structure of Nonmetropolitan Areas in the United States

Abstract

The forces underlying contemporary nonmetropolitan popula tion trends differ substantially from those that operated during the 1960s. Multivariate analyses of county-level population change between 1960-1970 and 1970-1974 support two major conclusions: (1) Migration into entirely rural nonmetropolitan counties has accelerated, evidently signaling the emergence in the 1970s of a new (or at least more complex) spatial pattern of settlement; and (2) previous growth advantages associated with manufacturing and gov ernment related activity appear to have diminished, and retirement and recre ation have emerged as important growth-inducing activities. The first finding has important implications for the rationale underlying U.S. regional development policy, in which urban nodes designated as "growth centers" figure as a necessary element for a region's takeoff or reversal of its economic decline. Under present circumstances, that rationale may define the prospects for nonmetropolitan development too narrowly by purporting that only areas with an identifiable urban node will grow, since alternatives to this model have spontaneously emerged. The second finding suggests that if opportunities for growth are to be exploited, regional develop ment policy with respect to public infrastructure and business development will need to identify exactly where these possibilities are emerging and build more specifically on them.