Mortality from Major Causes of Death and its Risk Factors in the Elderly. 26-year Follow-up Study in Hisayama.

Abstract

The authors studied mortality from major causes of death and risk factors in the elderly in a long-term prospective survey conducted in a Japanese suburban community, Hisayama. In the baseline survey in 1961, we scrutinized 1658 residents of the town aged 40 years or older accounting for 92% of the total population in this age range. Of those, 591 residents (245 men and 346 women) aged 60 years or older, who were free from major cardiovascular disease, were selected for the present study. They were followed-up for 26 years from 1961 to 1987. The average age was 67 years for men and 70 years for women, being significantly higher for women than for men. During the follow-up period, 529 subjects (89.5%) died, and 448 were autopsied (autopsy rate 84.7%). The all-cause mortality (per 1,000 person-years) after adjustment for age was 89.9 for men and 56.7 for women, the former being significantly higher than the latter (p < 0.01). The age-adjusted mortality from cerebrovascular disease was estimated to be 21.4 for men and 9.9 for women, i.e. 8.9 and 8.8 from heart disease, and 19.9 and 10.6 from neoplasm, and 18.1 and 12.2 from-pneumonia, respectively. There was significant sex difference in mortality from cerebrovascular disease, neoplasm and pneumonia (p < 0.01) but not from heart disease (p > 0.1). Multiple Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis showed systolic blood pressure and male sex to be significant risk factors for death by cerebrovascular disease. Systolic blood pressure was also a predictor for death by heart disease.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)