Economie Analysis of Fishery Rehabilitation Under Biological Uncertainty: A Conceptual Framework and Application

Abstract

Using the commercial yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery of Green Bay, Lake Michigan, as an example, we outline a conceptual framework for estimating economic gains from fishery rehabilitation in the presence of biological uncertainty. Three steps underlie the framework: (a) identifying the key biological uncertainties which hamper forecasts of stock changes induced by rehabilitation efforts; (b) developing plausible "future biotic states" that encompass these uncertainties and their probabilities of occurrence; and (c) estimating the "expected value" of economic gains for commercial fishers from an ongoing rehabilitation plan across these future biotic states. Using this approach, the expected economic gains for commercial fishers from rehabilitation are found to be roughly zero for most plausible scenarios. Since sport gains under this rehabilitation plan are probably substantial, and other economic impacts (regulatory costs and final consumer effects) appear to be small, the analysis suggests that the overall economic gains from the plan are positive.